Every year, Nepal witnesses a massive influx of travelers from across its southern border, with Indian tourists consistently forming the largest group of international visitors. While the appeal of cultural familiarity and visa-free travel is well known, the real story lies in the numbers and patterns behind these trips. This blog goes beyond the surface to provide a data-driven look at Indian tourists in Nepal.
Indian Arrivals in Nepal: Stable Summers, Strong Potential
Indian tourist arrivals in Nepal have demonstrated remarkable stability, establishing a solid foundation for future growth. After an impressive 52% surge from 2022 to 2023, annual arrivals have consistently remained near the 300,000 mark, settling at 292,438 in 2025. The summer season (May-August) has proven exceptionally resilient, holding steady at approximately 123,000 arrivals for three consecutive years—a reliable core audience that businesses can count on. Meanwhile, the early months of 2026 present a fresh opportunity, with 26,624 arrivals already recorded by mid-February, suggesting strong momentum for the year ahead.
Year | Jan-Apr | May-Aug | Sep-Dec | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 47,440 | 83,548 | 78,346 | 9,599 |
2023 | 92,185 | 123,442 | 104,309 | 319,936 |
2024 | 110,573 | 123,446 | 83,753 | 317,772 |
2025 | 87,017 | 123,479 | 81,942 | 292,438 |
2026* | 26,624 |
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
The Core Insight: With a dependable summer audience already secured, there is significant untapped potential in growing the post-monsoon and winter seasons. By creating targeted travel packages around festival periods and leveraging the strong early 2026 numbers, businesses can build upon this stable base to turn seasonal dips into new growth opportunities.
Surge in Early 2026: A Promising Start After Two Years of Softness
After a strong 2023, the early months of 2024 and 2025 showed signs of softness, particularly in March, April, and May. However, January 2026 has delivered a striking 26,624 arrivals—the highest January on record and a 30% increase over January 2025. This strong start suggests Indian travelers are returning with renewed confidence. Meanwhile, the summer months of May and June have consistently remained robust across all years, with June 2025 (32,662) actually surpassing all other five months of that year, indicating a reliable summer audience that continues to hold strong.
Month | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 3,915 | 16,436 | 24,139 | 20,485 | 26,624 |
Feb | 6,015 | 18,401 | 25,578 | 19,187 | |
Mar | 15,034 | 25,911 | 30,698 | 21,412 | |
Apr | 22,476 | 31,437 | 30,158 | 25,933 | |
May | 26,754 | 36,575 | 38,288 | 28,160 | |
Jun | 23,248 | 38,845 | 37,835 | 32,662 |
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
The Key Insight: The record-breaking January 2026 numbers signal a shift—Indian tourists are now extending their travel beyond the traditional summer window. Businesses should capitalize on this early momentum by promoting winter and early spring experiences. At the same time, the consistently strong May-June period remains a dependable revenue base that requires continued investment to maintain.
Summer Peak Strengthens as Winter Fluctuates
August 2025 emerged as the single strongest month across all four years, reaching 35,505 arrivals—the highest monthly figure on record. July and August together delivered over 62,000 arrivals in 2025, confirming that the summer season is not only stable but actually growing. However, the September to December period tells a different story. After peaking in 2023, arrivals in these months have shown inconsistency, with September 2025 dropping sharply to just 15,556—the lowest September since 2022. November and December 2025, while recovering slightly, still trailed their 2023 peaks, suggesting a post-monsoon slowdown that warrants attention.
Month | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul | 17,399 | 21,357 | 21,491 | 27,152 | |
Aug | 16,147 | 26,665 | 25,832 | 35,505 | |
Sep | 14,471 | 28,694 | 22,984 | 15,556 | |
Oct | 16,910 | 18,480 | 16,313 | 17,298 | |
Nov | 20,532 | 24,443 | 19,915 | 18,995 | |
Dec | 26,433 | 32,692 | 24,541 | 30,093 |
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
Core Insight: The summer season has evolved from a stable base into a genuine growth engine, with August now the crown jewel of the travel calendar. Businesses should double down on summer offerings, creating premium packages around this peak. Meanwhile, the soft September window presents a clear opportunity—targeted marketing campaigns and early-bird discounts could help smooth out this seasonal dip and capture travelers who might otherwise postpone their trips.
Visitor Decline in Bhaktapur: Perhaps a Changing Preference?
The data reveals a significant drop in visitors to Bhaktapur, falling from 61,851 in 2021/22 to just 36,135 in 2024/25—a decline of over 41%. This sharp decrease is striking, especially considering that overall Indian tourist arrivals to Nepal have remained relatively stable during this period. The steep fall in 2024/25 suggests that Bhaktapur may be losing its share of the Indian tourist market. Possible factors could include shifting traveler interests toward adventure tourism, increased competition from other heritage sites, or simply shorter trip durations that leave less time for exploring the valley's deeper cultural offerings.
Indian Tourists in Bhaktapur
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
Practical Insight: For businesses and tour operators in Bhaktapur, the declining numbers signal a need to refresh the destination's appeal. Rather than relying on its reputation alone, targeted promotions highlighting Bhaktapur's unique Newari culture, art galleries, and authentic culinary experiences could help attract visitors looking for something beyond the standard itinerary. Partnering with travel agencies to position Bhaktapur as a must-visit half-day or full-day excursion from Kathmandu—rather than an optional add-on—could help reverse the trend.
Lumbini's Steady Rise: A Bright Spot in Nepal's Tourism Landscape
Lumbini tells a story of consistent and impressive growth. Visitor numbers have risen steadily from 230,863 in 2022 to 260,010 in 2023, reaching 286,561 in 2024—a cumulative increase of over 24% in just three years. This upward trajectory suggests that Lumbini's appeal as a Buddhist pilgrimage destination remains strong and perhaps even growing among Indian travelers. The site's spiritual significance, combined with improving infrastructure and easier access from the Indian border, appears to be driving this sustained interest.
Indian Tourists in Lumbini
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
The Truth: Lumbini's consistent growth offers a clear lesson: spiritual and pilgrimage tourism is a resilient and expanding market. Businesses should invest in this momentum by developing specialized pilgrimage packages that combine Lumbini with other Buddhist sites in the region. Extended stay options, meditation retreats, and festival-based programming (particularly around Buddha Jayanti) could further deepen visitor engagement and convert day-trippers into overnight guests, maximizing the economic impact of this steady influx.
Mountain Expeditions See Dip, But Success Rates Hold Steady
The number of mountaineers attempting expeditions in Nepal dropped from 130 in 2023 to 92 in 2024—a decline of nearly 30%. This reduction was consistent across both male and female climbers, with male attempts falling from 103 to 70 and female attempts from 27 to 22. However, the success rate remained relatively stable. In 2023, approximately 38% of male climbers (49 out of 103) and 59% of female climbers (16 out of 27) reached the summit. In 2024, the success rate for males held at around 44% (31 out of 70), while female climbers saw a slight dip to 50% (11 out of 22). Notably, female climbers consistently outperformed their male counterparts in success percentage both years, suggesting that while fewer women attempt expeditions, those who do tend to summit at higher rates.
Indian Mountaineers by Gender
Source: Nepal Tourism Board (2022-2026)
The Truth: The drop in total expeditions may signal a temporary cooling period or increased selectivity among climbers. However, the steady success rates indicate that preparation and conditions remain reliable. For expedition operators, the data highlights an opportunity to specifically target and support female climbers, who demonstrate strong success rates despite smaller numbers. Creating women-focused climbing teams, mentorship programs, or specialized training camps could tap into this high-potential segment and help grow participation from female mountaineers.
2026 Forecast: Indian Arrivals Set to Grow Across All Scenarios
Every forecast scenario points to growth in 2026. Even the cautious projection of 315,000 visitors marks an 8% increase over 2025. The realistic forecast of 340,000 would deliver a 16% jump, approaching the 2023 peak, while the optimistic 370,000 would set a record. This upward momentum is anchored by a record-breaking January (26,624), ensuring that even the most conservative estimates exceed last year's total.
Scenario | Projected Visitors |
|---|---|
Realistic | ~340,000 |
Optimistic | ~370,000 |
Cautious | ~315,000 |
Note: 80% Confidence Interval
Time for a Tourism Upgrade: 3 Global Lessons for Nepal's Indian Market
Indian tourist arrivals in Nepal have shown remarkable resilience, with a record-breaking January 2026 (26,624 arrivals) setting the stage for a potential breakout year. Forecasts suggest 2026 could reach between 315,000 and 370,000 visitors—surpassing 2025's total of 292,438 across all scenarios. This signals that Nepal's largest tourism market is ready for growth—and with the right moves, Nepal can capture it.
Lesson from Sri Lanka: Turn Cultural Ties into Seamless Access
Sri Lanka has made India its top priority, shifting focus from European markets to capitalize on shared culture and proximity. Indian arrivals to Sri Lanka grew by nearly 50% last year, with close to 90 weekly flights operating between the two countries. A new Ahmedabad-Colombo direct flight is launching soon. They've also created a fast-track approval system for Indian film shoots, with clearances coming through within days. Ramayana tourism remains a major draw, leveraging shared spiritual heritage.(https://www.theweek.in/news/tourism/2026/02/05/india-takes-centre-stage-at-otm-2026-as-sri-lanka-malaysia-push-tourism-ties.html).
Launch a dedicated, fast-track entry procedure for Indian travelers in Nepal.
Create a "Ramayana Trail" circuit with packaged itineraries and trained guides.
Offer single-window clearance for Indian film productions shooting in Nepal.
Increase flight connectivity from Tier-2 and Tier-3 Indian cities.
Lesson from Malaysia: Remove Friction for Independent Travelers
Malaysia has made self-driven holidays incredibly accessible for Indian tourists by recognizing Indian driving licenses, making car hires simple in destinations like Langkawi. They work closely with local operators to create seamless experiences. East Malaysia's Sarawak actively promotes its international marathons and the iconic Rainforest World Music Festival, now in its 29th year, which attracts large numbers of Indian visitors annually from Mumbai and eastern and southern Indian states (https://www.theweek.in/news/tourism/2026/02/05/india-takes-centre-stage-at-otm-2026-as-sri-lanka-malaysia-push-tourism-ties.html).
Simplify self-drive tourism by recognizing Indian licenses and creating clear road signage.
Develop festival-based tourism packages around Indra Jatra, Dashain, and Tihar, specifically marketed to Indians.
Partner with Indian cycling and running clubs to promote Himalayan marathons and events.
Lesson from Multiple Nations: Show Up Where India Does Business
The India Travel Market 2026 in Mumbai attracted tourism authorities from over 60 countries, all of whom recognized India as one of the world's fastest-growing outbound markets. Germany has dedicated a €2 million promotional budget specifically for Indian travelers. Morocco treats India as a priority market with tailored campaigns. Switzerland uses influencers and celebrities to amplify its appeal. Zimbabwe is actively participating in Indian trade shows like OTM to position itself alongside established players . The message is clear: countries serious about Indian tourists invest in being present where India does business (https://www.travelandtourworld.tw/).
Maintain a strong, consistent presence at OTM and SATTE every year.
Create India-specific marketing campaigns featuring Nepali celebrities popular in India.
Partner with Indian travel agents for familiarization trips.
Develop tailored packages for weddings, corporate retreats, and millennials—segments where Indian outbound spending is growing fastest.