Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park lies just north of Kathmandu. It acts as the city's green refuge and main water source. This proximity has made it Nepal’s most accessible natural escape, attracting a diverse range of visitors - from local families on weekend trips to international trekkers and spiritual pilgrims. However, the real shift underway is not driven by overseas tourists, but by a rapid rise in domestic visitors seeking convenient moments of peace and nature close to home.
The Domestic Tourism Explosion
Between 2021 and 2023, total visitors surged by over 100%. Nepali visitors have consistently accounted for more than 96% of all visitors, a share that grew further in 2024. While destinations like Pokhara or Everest rely on international tourists, Shivapuri’s identity and future are shaped by people from Kathmandu seeking a nearby escape.
Year | Nepali | SAARC | Foreign | Total |
| 2021 | 155,913 | 230 | 1,261 | 157,404 |
| 2022 | 199,346 | 828 | 7,295 | 207,469 |
| 2023 | 336,229 | 1,557 | 9,808 | 347,594 |
| 2024* | 222,631 | 966 | 5,654 | 229,251 |
Source: Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (2077/78-2080/81); * - Only 6 months available
Key Insight:Success here depends entirely on serving the local day-tripper. Business models must be built around their schedules, their budgets, and their desire for convenient access to nature - not around traditional trekking tourism.
The All-Season Calendar: How to Plan for Shivapuri's Rush
The park has an all-season calendar, with more than 20000 visitors each month, even in the cold months of December and January.
Aug–Dec: This is your main season. Post-monsoon weather and major festivals bring massive crowds. November and December alone had over 51,369 visitors in 2023. Therefore, plan for maximum capacity.
Mar–June: Consistently high number of visitors. Good weather and school holidays drive steady traffic.
Jan-Feb, and July: Visitor numbers drop but don’t disappear. This is your time to prepare and build relationships.
Nepali Tourists by Month, 2023
Source: Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (2077/78-2080/81)
Key Insight: Maximize profit during the 6-month rush. Use the other 6 months to build the foundation for next year’s success.
Target Your Premium Seasons
While local visitors come year-round, your foreign and SAARC tourists arrive in specific, predictable windows. Their higher spending makes them a crucial premium market.
Foreign Tourists now have a clear, dominant season: March-May, and October-November. In 2023, over one-half of all foreign tourists came in these five months, with October being the absolute peak (1,705 visitors). Their travel has shifted decisively away from the unpredictable monsoon.
SAARC Tourists show a different, steadier pattern with twin bumps: a primary peak in December and a secondary one in June. They provide a consistent baseline of visitors throughout the year, unaffected by the monsoon lull.
Foreign Tourists by Month, 2023
Source: Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (2077/78-2080/81)
Key Insight: Don't offer premium services randomly. Align them with the calendar of your international and SAARC visitors to ensure they sell out.
Your Annual Plan: All Seasons, Multiple Strategies
A successful Shivapuri business doesn’t have one "season" - it has distinct phases. The annual visitor numbers show a predictable rhythm you must follow to profit.
Total Tourists by Month, 2023
Source: Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (2077/78-2080/81)
Market Differentiation: Don't have one annual plan. Have three quarterly plans. Profit comes from dominating the 6-month Hyper-Peak, stability comes from mastering the 3-month steady core, and resilience comes from wisely managing the 3-month Monsoon Baseline.
Where to Focus?
Shivapuri isn’t a remote trekking hub. It’s a convenient escape from the city. Your business should be as easy and reliable as a local café - not as exclusive as a mountain lodge.
Think volume, not luxury: Profit comes from serving thousands of day-trippers, not a few high-paying guests.
Think convenience, not adventure: Your service is about making their quick trip better - before, during, and after the hike.
Think regulars, not tourists: Build a loyal, local customer base that returns weekly or monthly.
High Opportunity Areas ✅
The Essentials: Parking, water, snacks, and clean restrooms.
The Upgrades: Guided birdwatching, photography tours, monastery walks, gear rentals.
The Membership: Annual passes with perks, punch cards, and member-only events.
Cautious Approach Areas ⚠️
Overnight Stays: Very low demand. Most visitors are day-trippers.
High-End Dining: Most visitors want fast, affordable food after a hike.
Remote Locations: If you're not at a main gate, you won't get traffic.
Foreign Tourist Focus: They are only 3% of visitors.
Areas to Avoid or Mitigate ❌
Low-Volume, High-Price Model: This is a trekking area model. Shivapuri is a volume market.
Businesses Requiring Overnight Stays: The demand is virtually non-existent.
Ignoring Weekday Opportunities: This leaves 70% of your potential revenue untapped.
Underestimating the Domestic Market: This is a critical strategic failure.
Environmental Non-Compliance: This is an existential risk.
Plan Your Business with Forecasted Data
The past four years have proven that the demand is real and growing. But tourism can shift. A smart business uses data to prepare for both opportunity and risk.
Scenario | Visitor Estimate |
| Realistic | ~ 585,000 |
| Optimistic | ~ 660,000 |
| Cautious | ~ 520,000 |
Note: 80% Confidence Interval
Important Note: Treat these figures as a planning benchmark, not a promise. Tourism can shift quickly due to policies, the global economy, or local events.
Shivapuri-Nagarjun Winning Formula
Serve the 29, not the 1: Your money comes from thousands of local day-trippers, not a few foreign tourists. Design for volume and small spends.
Own the Day-Trip: Sell what people need after they buy their park ticket: snacks, parking, gear rentals, and simple guided walks.
Win the Weekday: Build your core business on predictable weekday deals with schools, offices, and local clubs.
Claim a Premium Niche: Be the best at one high-value service, like birdwatching tours or corporate retreats. This is where your big profit margins are.
Partner with the City: You’re part of Kathmandu. Work with hotels, tour companies, and taxi apps to create easy, complete packages for visitors.