Bardiya National Park is one of Nepal’s major tourist destinations. Every year, both Nepali and international tourists visit here to observe wildlife, birds, and natural beauty. At present, about 50 hotels and homestays are operating in Bardiya. If each hotel/homestay has an average of 14 rooms and each room accommodates an average of 2 guests, the total lodging capacity is:
50 hotels × 14 rooms × 2 guests per room = 1,400 guests per night
This shows that the current hotel infrastructure can accommodate 1,400 guests at a time, which may be more or less than the potential number of tourists.
Source: The Kathmandu Post 03/03/2025; AARP Travel Center (n.d)
This raises the question: Does the number and capacity of hotels match the actual tourist demand, or is it based only on estimates and optimism?
This blog presents monthly tourist projections for 2026 under three scenarios (current trend, higher growth, and lower growth). Additionally, it estimates how many hotels might be needed in Bardia depending on the percentage of tourists staying in hotels (50%, 70%, 80%).
*Hotels can earn income outside of tourist stays (e.g., banquets and events), which are not included in this analysis.
Projection for 2026: April and October Busy, June–August Quiet
In all three scenarios, April appears as the busiest month, with a projected 4,397 tourists under the current trend. Similarly, October (4,241), March (3,781), and November (3,662) are also months with high tourist arrivals.
In contrast, only 178 tourists are projected for June, which is 96% lower than April. July and August show a similar low level of arrivals. This indicates that tourism in Bardiya is concentrated in just four to five months, while hotels remain nearly empty for the remaining seven to eight months.
Month | % Tourists | Realistic | Optimistic | Cautious |
|---|---|---|---|---|
January | 6.23 | 1,775 | 1,825 | 1,732 |
February | 10.80 | 3,078 | 3,165 | 3,003 |
March | 13.27 | 3,781 | 3,887 | 3,688 |
April | 15.43 | 4,397 | 4,521 | 4,289 |
May | 5.03 | 1,435 | 1,475 | 1,399 |
June | 0.62 | 178 | 183 | 173 |
July | 1.48 | 422 | 434 | 411 |
August | 1.46 | 415 | 427 | 405 |
September | 5.77 | 1,644 | 1,690 | 1,604 |
October | 14.88 | 4,241 | 4,360 | 4,137 |
November | 12.85 | 3,662 | 3,764 | 3,572 |
December | 9.22 | 2,627 | 2,702 | 2,562 |
Total | 100 | 28,500 | 29,300 | 27,800 |
For more on these three scenarios, visit this link: Bardiya National Park
Business Insight: This projection suggests two strategies for hotel operators in Thakurdwara:
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During the busy season (April, October–November, March), special attention should be given to bookings and pricing strategies.
During the low season (June–August), hotels can balance operations through maintenance, staff leaves, packages targeting local tourists, and corporate events.
Are 50 Hotels Necessary? Analysis Across Three Scenarios
According to realistic projections for 2026 (28,500 annual tourists), the busiest month is expected to be April, with a projected 4,397 tourists. The number of hotels required depends on what percentage of these tourists stay in Thakurdwara.
In the higher tourist scenario (29,300 tourists), even if 80% of tourists stay in Thakurdwara during the busiest month (April), only 9 hotels would be needed. This is just 18% of the approximately 50 hotels currently in operation.
Similarly, in the lower tourist scenario (27,800 tourists), with 80% of tourists staying in Thakurdwara, only 9 hotels are needed in the busiest month, again representing 18% of current hotels.
No. of Hotels Required As Per Projected Tourists in 2026
Calculation Method:
Total tourists in April: 4,521 (High Scenario); Average daily arrivals: 4,521 ÷ 30 = 151
Total tourists present on a peak day (assuming an average stay of 2 nights): 151 × 2 = 302
Required rooms: (302 × percentage staying in Thakurdwara) ÷ 2 persons per room = 121 rooms (at 80% share)
Required hotels: Required rooms ÷ 14 rooms per hotel (average) = 121 ÷ 14 ≈ 9 hotels
Note: An average of 14 rooms per hotel was used because Bardiya has mostly small and medium-sized hotels.
An Important Clarification: Even if 80% of tourists stay in Thakurdwara, only 9 hotels are actually required according to this analysis. However, this does not mean the remaining 41 hotels will be completely empty. In reality, tourists choose hotels based on size, location, service quality, and reputation. Some small but well-maintained hotels may be fully occupied, while some large hotels with lower service quality may only be half full. Therefore, the real market dynamics are always more complex than simple calculations.
Tourist arrivals are not like before.
Krishna Prasad Bhattarai Cited in The Kathmandu Post 01/01/2026
In the Context of Hotel Business Expansion: If you are considering building a new hotel, think twice. Even in the peak season (April), all three scenarios show that a maximum of only 9 hotels would be needed. The current estimated 50 hotels can comfortably meet demand for the next few years.
Opening a new hotel in a market that already has low occupancy would only increase competition. Instead, it would be wiser to invest in strategies such as upgrading existing hotels, improving service quality, adding new activities based on Tharu culture, and extending tourists’ stays from the current 2 nights to 4–5 nights.
This approach can increase hotel occupancy rates and revenue without necessarily increasing the number of tourists.
A New Perspective on Tourism: Lessons Bardiya Can Learn
Only 0.78% of international tourists visiting Nepal travel to Bardiya National Park. This means that out of every 100 foreign visitors who come to Nepal, 99 return home without visiting Bardiya. In such a situation, it is extremely important to increase the length of stay of those who do visit Bardiya.
For more on the share of tourists across different areas, visit this link: Nepal Tourism
If the current average stay of 2 nights could be extended to 4–5 nights, hotel occupancy rates could increase significantly — even without increasing the number of tourists. Tourist destinations around the world have adopted various strategies to extend visitor stays, and Bardiya can learn a great deal from them.
Bardiya itself offers an excellent example — Burhan Wilderness Camp. Conservationist Manoj Gautam established this camp after preventing a plan to build a casino hotel on wildlife corridor land. Listed by Time Magazine in 2024 among the world’s 50 greatest places, the camp offers visitors a truly unique experience.
Located on a peninsula between two branches of the Karnali River, guests can observe wild elephants, rhinos, tigers, and swamp deer without even entering the national park.
https://time.com/collections/worlds-greatest-places-2024/6992266/burhan-wilderness-camps/
The key to its success lies in its model: the camp is assembled only when guests arrive. Except for a single solar-powered air-conditioned treehouse, all other structures are temporary. This ensures minimal disturbance to wildlife feeding grounds.
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The camp provides employment to the local Tharu community, serves organic food, and promotes measures to reduce human–tiger conflict.
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Visitors who stay for three nights have a high chance of spotting a tiger — and even if they do not, they may hear its roar throughout the night.
Another inspiring example from Bardiya is the Community Anti-Poaching Unit (CBAPU). Led by Hemant Acharya, this group works in the buffer zone with around 2,000 volunteers to protect wildlife.
They use camera traps, smartphones, and even old computers to monitor wildlife and human activity. Their studies show that tigers, leopards, elephants, and humans often use the same paths — sometimes passing each other just minutes apart.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joesills/2024/07/28/camping-with-tigers-brings-curious-travelers-to-bardiya-in-nepal/
Hotels in Thakurdwara can connect tourists with CBAPU activities.
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Visitors could spend a day checking camera traps, identifying species from footprints, or learning about community-based conflict mitigation efforts.
Kenya’s Maasai Mara National Reserve has successfully increased visitor stay duration. Beyond wildlife viewing, it integrates Maasai culture, village tours, handicraft workshops, and traditional dance into tourism packages.
Visitors can learn spear-throwing skills from Maasai warriors, explore local markets, and gather around campfires at night to hear traditional stories. What might have been a one-day safari becomes a 3–4 day immersive experience.
Similarly, Costa Rica has developed a highly successful eco-tourism model. Tourists do not visit only for wildlife; they also:
Source: https://samsonsafaris.com/experience/maasai-cultural-tour/
Dolphin Watching and Boating on the Karnali River: Dolphin observation in Bardiya’s corridor areas and at Daulatpur Ghat is increasingly becoming an आकर्षive destination for tourists.
Krishnasar (Blackbuck) Conservation Area: The Krishnasar Conservation Area located in Thakurbaba Municipality can be further developed as a tourist destination.
Bird Watching: Bardiya is home to 513 species of migratory birds. By constructing bird-watching towers, this could become a major attraction for visitors.
Night Jungle Safari: Similar to Chitwan, Bardiya also has the potential to operate night jungle safaris.