Chitwan National Park is one of Nepal’s major tourist destinations, where every year Nepali and international tourists visit to enjoy wildlife viewing, bird watching, and natural beauty.
Sauraha has approximately 150 hotels, with an estimated total accommodation capacity of around 7,200 guests per night. On average, this translates to about 24 rooms per hotel.
Source: OurTourism News 06/07/2025; Ichchhakamana News 20/02/2026
In this context, it is natural to ask: what is the balance between hotel capacity and tourist numbers? Have we built hotels based on the number of tourists expected to arrive in the coming years? Or have we opened them based on assumptions and optimism alone?
This blog presents projected monthly tourist numbers for 2026 under three realistic scenarios (current trend, higher growth, and lower growth). Based on the percentage of tourists staying in Sauraha (50%, 70%, and 80%), it estimates the number of hotels that may actually be required.
*Hotels can earn income outside of tourist stays (e.g., banquets and events), which are not included in this analysis.
Monthly Projection for 2026 Under Three Scenarios
The three-scenario projection (realistic, optimistic, and cautious) for 2026 clearly indicates that tourism in Chitwan National Park is seasonal. In all three scenarios, October is projected to be the busiest month. March, April, November, and December are also expected to remain busy months. In contrast, June, July, and August are projected to experience lower tourist arrivals.
Month | % Tourists | Realistic | Optimistic | Cautious |
|---|---|---|---|---|
January | 7.44 | 26,784 | 29,760 | 22,320 |
February | 9.25 | 33,300 | 37,000 | 27,750 |
March | 10.92 | 39,312 | 43,680 | 32,760 |
April | 10.57 | 38,052 | 42,280 | 31,710 |
May | 6.78 | 24,408 | 27,120 | 20,340 |
June | 3.48 | 12,528 | 13,920 | 10,440 |
July | 3.32 | 11,952 | 13,280 | 9,960 |
August | 3.01 | 10,836 | 12,040 | 9,030 |
September | 5.76 | 20,736 | 23,040 | 17,280 |
October | 15.49 | 55,764 | 61,960 | 46,470 |
November | 12.21 | 43,956 | 48,840 | 36,630 |
December | 11.80 | 42,480 | 47,200 | 35,400 |
Total | 100 | 360,000 | 400,000 | 300,000 |
For more on these three scenarios, visit this link: Chitwan National Park
Business Insight: This monthly projection provides two important signals for hotel entrepreneurs in Sauraha. First, during the peak seasons (October–December and March–April), businesses should adopt advanced booking and strategic pricing policies to maximize capacity utilization. Second, during the extremely low season (June–August), hotels can maintain business stability by planning renovations, scheduling staff leave, and introducing promotional packages targeting domestic tourists.
Are 150 hotels Necessary? Analysis Under All Three Scenarios
According to the realistic 2026 projection (360,000 tourists annually), the busiest month is expected to be October, with an estimated 61,920 visitors. The number of hotels required depends on what proportion of these tourists stay in Sauraha.
Under the optimistic scenario, even if 80% of tourists stay in Sauraha during the peak month (October), only 74 hotels would be required. This represents just 49% of the currently operating 150 hotels.
Similarly, under the cautious scenario, even if 80% of tourists stay in Sauraha during the busiest month (October), only 56 hotels would be needed—equivalent to just 37% of the existing 150 hotels.
No. of Hotels Required As Per Projected Tourists in 2026
Calculation Method:
Total tourists in October: 61,920; Average daily arrivals: 61,920 ÷ 31 = 1,997
Total tourists present on a peak day (assuming an average stay of 2 nights): 1,997 × 2 = 3,994
Required rooms: (3,994 × percentage staying in Sauraha) ÷ 2 persons per room = 998.5 rooms (at 50% share)
Required hotels: Required rooms ÷ 24 rooms per hotel (average) = 998.5 ÷ 24 ≈ 42 hotels
Current average room capacity: Dividing the existing total capacity (7,200 rooms) by 150 hotels indicates an average of 24 rooms per hotel.
An Important Clarification: The above analysis shows that under the realistic scenario, even if 80% of tourists stay in Sauraha, only 67 hotels would be required. However, this does not mean that the remaining 83 hotels would remain completely vacant. In reality, tourists choose hotels based on factors such as size, location, service quality, and reputation. Some smaller hotels may operate at full occupancy, while some larger hotels may be only half full. Therefore, market dynamics are always more complex than mathematical calculations.
The outgoing president of the Regional Hotel Association, Bhattarai, states that currently only 5 to 10 percent of hotel rooms are occupied.
Omprakash Pandey, President of the Chitwan Regional Hotel Association, states that February, March, and April constitute the main tourist season in Sauraha. He notes that while last year around 80% of hotel rooms were occupied during this period, less than 50% of rooms have been booked this year.
In the Context of Hotel Business Expansion: If you are considering building a new hotel, it would be wise to think twice. Across all three scenarios, even during peak season, the maximum requirement is estimated at only 74 hotels. This suggests that the existing 150 hotels are sufficient to meet projected demand for the coming years. Opening a new hotel would further intensify competition in an already underutilized market. Instead, investing in upgrading existing facilities and developing activities that extend tourists’ length of stay would be a more strategic and sustainable approach.
Time for a Tourism Upgrade: Global and Local Lessons
Only 11.1% of foreign tourists visiting Nepal actually visit Chitwan National Park. In other words, out of every 100 international tourists to Nepal, 89 leave without visiting Chitwan.
For more on the share of tourists across different areas, visit this link: Nepal Tourism
In this context, extending the length of stay for tourists who do visit Chitwan is critically important. If the current average stay of 2 nights could be increased to 4–5 nights, hotel occupancy could rise significantly without increasing the number of tourists. Around the world, tourist destinations use a variety of strategies to encourage longer stays, providing valuable lessons that Chitwan could adopt to boost both occupancy and local tourism revenue.
Florence launched the “Discover the Florentine Workshops” project, aiming to give tourists an authentic experience of the city’s soul. Instead of just visiting the main attractions, visitors are taken to artisan workshops, historic cafés, and family-run businesses that reflect Florence’s true identity. Tourists can watch craftsmen at work, learn traditional techniques, and purchase products directly from the makers. The initiative is implemented through collaboration among business associations, shop owners, and local institutions.
Source: https://fondazione.destinationflorence.it/en/dante-alighieri-guides-to-the-discovery-of-florentine-excellence-the-project-discover-the-florentine-workshops-kicks-off-get-to-know-the-real-florence/
Sauraha has a rich Tharu handicraft tradition—such as sikki grass baskets, clay pots, and traditional jewelry made by Tharu women. Tourists can be engaged in hands-on workshops, where they learn to create these crafts themselves. For example, a tourist could spend an hour making a clay pot and take their creation home as a souvenir.
Restaurants could offer Tharu cooking classes, teaching dishes like dhikri, bagia, and anarsa. These experiences can transform a short visit into a half-day stay, while directing income directly to local artisans and small businesses.
Laxmibas homestay village in Madi Municipality, Chitwan demonstrates that even traditional Brahmin-Chhetri settlements can become tourist destinations. Starting six years ago with just four homestays, this community tourism initiative has now expanded to eight homestays, hosting 8,460 tourists in the last fiscal year. Its success lies in organic food, traditional culture (bhajans and Deuda songs), and the peaceful rural environment. Tourists come to enjoy pesticide-free vegetables, pick cucumbers from backyard gardens, and spend quiet time away from the city’s hustle and bustle.
Source: https://kathmandupost.com/money/2025/08/06/once-a-natural-prison-madi-village-now-welcomes-thousands-of-tourists
Hotels in Sauraha can adopt this model as part of their tourism packages. Visitors can be taken for a day-long homestay experience in Laxmibas, engaging in farm work, preparing organic meals, and participating in evening cultural activities such as bhajans.
This approach can extend hotel stays by an extra day while providing tourists with an authentic experience of Nepalese rural life.
Nyungwe National Park in Rwanda adopted a high-value, low-volume strategy, adding new attractions such as canopy walkways, zip lines, and additional hiking trails to encourage tourists to stay longer. As a result, both per-visitor spending and length of stay increased significantly. From 2,386 tourists in 2005 to 29,667 in 2024, revenue grew from 50 million Rwandan Francs to 1.2 billion, demonstrating that enhancing experiences can drive higher value even without massive visitor numbers.
Source: https://kathmandupost.com/money/2025/08/06/once-a-natural-prison-madi-village-now-welcomes-thousands-of-tourists
Chitwan can similarly develop new attractions to lengthen tourist stays. Plans such as night safaris for observing wildlife after dark, and a 24-km trekking trail from Sauraha to Madi, could be revived.
Additional facilities like canopy walkways, bird-watching towers, and a Tharu cultural museum can be introduced. These initiatives would provide unique experiences, encouraging tourists to spend more time in the park and increasing overall revenue for the region.